Enverus Intelligence® Research’s Long-Term Load Forecast Model: Power Demand Trends and Growth Drivers in the U.S.
Key Ideas
  • Enverus Intelligence® Research forecasts a 42% total load growth in the U.S. by 2050, driven by factors like population growth, data centers, green hydrogen plant demand, and EV adoption.
  • Data center load growth is projected to add 153 GW of capacity by 2050, with a focus on realistic projections and unbiased methodology in estimating load segments.
  • Regions like SE, PJM, ERCOT, and WEST are expected to experience the highest levels of load growth, while behind-the-meter residential solar and storage forecasts help offset some of this growth.
  • The report highlights the impact of factors like data centers, electric vehicles, green hydrogen, CCUS, and residential solar and storage on future power demand forecasts from 2024-2050.
Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has developed a long-term load forecast model that predicts a significant 42% growth in total load across the U.S. by 2050. This growth is attributed to various drivers, including population expansion, increased demand from data centers, growth in cryptocurrency mining, carbon capture and storage (CCUS) initiatives, green hydrogen plant demand, and the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The report highlights that regions such as SE, PJM, ERCOT, and WEST are projected to experience the highest levels of load growth over the coming decades. Moreover, the surge in data center load is expected to add 153 GW of capacity by 2050, with a specific emphasis on providing realistic and unbiased load projections. The model developed by EIR aims to offer accurate forecasts for significant load segments across the Lower 48 states, incorporating a consistent methodology. The analysis also underlines the impact of factors like data centers, EVs, green hydrogen, CCUS, and residential solar and storage on future power demand trends. The report provides insights into the evolving power market landscape, including generation mix projections, power price impacts, and market restructuring. Additionally, it delves into the potential challenges and opportunities in the energy industry, particularly in areas like data center development and the integration of renewable energy sources.
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