Global Growth and Challenges in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production
Key Ideas
  • Global sustainable aviation fuel production capacity increased significantly in response to regulatory developments like ReFuelEU and UK SAF mandate.
  • Several countries, including in Asia, are exploring mandates for SAF production, turning SAF into a global tradeable commodity.
  • Challenges such as raising capital and construction persist for announced facilities, making 2024 critical for projects aiming to operate before 2030.
  • HEFA pathway dominates capacity announcements until 2030, with a need for more progress on advanced fuels and e-fuel pipeline to meet sub-targets.
The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity witnessed a substantial increase due to regulatory advancements like ReFuelEU and the UK SAF mandate, along with incentives supporting SAF adoption in the US. The latest annual SAF Market Outlook by SkyNRG highlighted the trend of SAF becoming a global tradeable commodity, with emerging trade corridors between the US, Southeast Asia, Europe, and South America. While voluntary demand for SAF is strengthening, challenges such as capital raising, construction, and commissioning are hurdles faced by most announced facilities. The report emphasizes the importance of 2024 for projects aiming to be operational before 2030. SkyNRG's 2024 SAF Market Outlook, developed in collaboration with consultancy ICF, covered 349 announced projects globally after filtering out immature projects and those with financial risks. The global production capacity for SAF reached 17.3 million tonnes, driven by regulatory developments and aspirational targets across countries totaling a demand of 16.1 million tonnes. Regulatory changes in the EU, UK, and the US have been significant, with mandates and targets pushing for higher SAF usage percentages. While HEFA pathway dominates current capacity announcements, the report stresses the need for progress in advanced fuels and e-fuel pipelines to achieve sub-targets. It underscores the importance of strong demand-side policies and investments in innovation and collaboration to meet the scale required by 2050. Countries like Japan, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, and Singapore are considering SAF mandates, with China already setting goals for SAF usage. Latin America is emerging as a potential SAF production hub, with projected capacity growth. The report also highlights the dominance of agricultural feedstocks in the US projects, which may impact export possibilities to Europe. Overall, the future of SAF production depends on addressing challenges, investing in innovation, and aligning with sustainable aviation goals.
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