Green Hydrogen Production Costs in Iberia Expected to Halve by 2035-40
Key Ideas
  • The cost of producing green hydrogen in Iberia is projected to decrease to around EUR 5/kg by 2035-40 from the current EUR 10-11/kg, making it more competitive compared to other European countries.
  • Iberia's high load factors for renewables generation and the forecast of green power contributing 90% of output by 2040 will enable direct connection of electrolysers to the grid, taking advantage of low wholesale prices.
  • Despite a current mismatch between the cost of producing hydrogen and the willingness of buyers to pay, projections indicate a potential shift by 2040 due to increasing prices of competing energy sources.
  • The cancellations of European hydrogen projects were seen as a natural progression, with high production costs and low off-taker interest leading to the favoring of the Iberian hydrogen market and the proposed H2Med pipeline construction.
During a conference in Lisbon, Anise Ganbold from Aurora Energy Research mentioned that the cost of producing green hydrogen in Iberia is expected to more than halve to around EUR 5/kg by 2035-40 from the current EUR 10-11/kg. This decrease is attributed to the growing green capacity in Spain and Portugal, making production costs cheaper than in countries like Germany, France, and the Netherlands. The high load factors for renewables generation in Iberia, with a forecast of green power contributing 90% of output by 2040, will allow direct grid connection for electrolysers and utilization of low wholesale prices. Despite the current discrepancy between production costs and buyer preferences, projections suggest a potential shift in buyer behavior by 2040 due to rising prices of alternative energy sources. Although there have been cancellations of European hydrogen projects due to high costs and low demand, Ganbold views this as a natural course for less mature projects in the sector. The favorable production costs in Iberia are driving the development of the hydrogen market in the region, with the proposed H2Med pipeline construction with France highlighted by Spanish TSO Enagas as a key step in this direction.
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