Green Hydrogen Revolution: Cost Decline to Spur Heavy Industry Decarbonization
Key Ideas
  • ABI Research predicts global green hydrogen costs to drop to US$2.5/kg by 2030 and reach US$1.80/kg by 2040, making it cost-competitive with polluting alternatives.
  • Key drivers include increased electrolyzer efficiencies, economies of scale, and falling renewable energy prices leading to significant cost reductions in production.
  • Electrolyzer producers and supporting technology vendors are crucial in driving the decline in CAPEX and OPEX, with major players like ITM Power, Linde, and Shell leading the charge.
  • The adoption of green hydrogen by heavy industries such as aviation, steel, and shipping is essential in meeting sustainability commitments, with cost playing a pivotal role in driving demand for H2.
Green hydrogen is poised to revolutionize heavy industries by offering a sustainable solution for decarbonization. Despite the historically high Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH), ABI Research foresees a significant cost decline, predicting that by 2030, global green hydrogen production costs will drop to US$2.5/kg, becoming cost-competitive. By 2040, these costs are expected to plummet further to US$1.80/kg, driven by advancements in electrolyzer efficiencies, economies of scale, and decreasing renewable energy prices. Key players in this transformation include electrolyzer producers like ITM Power and supporting technology vendors such as Danfoss and Schneider Electric. The success of these projections is crucial for heavy industry vendors aiming to align with sustainability goals and net zero targets. Industries like aviation, steel, and shipping, facing pressure to decarbonize, will find green hydrogen adoption essential. Major green hydrogen producers like Linde and Shell are set to play a pivotal role as the market matures. ABI Research's report emphasizes the importance of accurately predicting costs for project success, highlighting the need for industry players to monitor the market dynamics closely for optimal timing and market entry. Overall, the economic viability of green hydrogen is expected to pave the way for a cleaner future in industrial sectors, driving sustainable growth and environmental protection.
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