Nordic Region Faces Profitability Challenges in Renewable Energy Sector, Analysts Call for Flexibility with Batteries and Hydrogen
Key Ideas
- Analyst firm SKM Market Predictor highlights declining profitability in Nordic renewables development, emphasizing the need for flexibility with batteries and hydrogen.
- Cannibalisation effects due to surplus generation necessitate new plants to be built alongside batteries for profitability, as solar and onshore wind face lower earnings.
- Investments in batteries and green hydrogen are crucial to balance the system, with hydrogen expected to play a key role in replacing gas for power production in the 2050s.
The Nordic region is facing challenges in the profitability of renewable energy projects, with declining earnings impacting green growth. Analyst firm SKM Market Predictor emphasizes the necessity of flexibility provided by batteries and hydrogen production to stimulate investment in the sector. The firm predicts a peak in average Nordic spot power prices by 2028, followed by a drop due to the increase in green capacity. However, the cannibalisation effect, particularly affecting solar and onshore wind plants, is leading to lower returns and hindering new capacity developments. SKM suggests that new plants should be coupled with batteries for profitability. CEO Viktor Balyberdin highlights the need for 1 GW of battery capacity by 2030 and 4 GW by 2040 to balance the system. Additionally, the forecast indicates a growing demand for hydrogen production, reaching 33 TWh by 2030 and 149 TWh by 2040. Despite high costs, hydrogen is expected to replace gas in power production by the 2050s. SKM also sees hydrogen as a catalyst for investments in offshore wind, with projected capture prices between EUR 47-70/MWh, below recent tender prices in Norway. The call for increased investment in batteries and hydrogen underscores the pivotal role of these technologies in the transition towards a more sustainable energy landscape.