BMW's Bet on Hydrogen: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities in the Zero-Emissions Race
Key Ideas
- BMW collaborates with Toyota to develop a hydrogen fuel-cell consumer car, aiming for series production by 2028, believing in a mix of BEVs and hydrogen vehicles for a zero-emissions transportation shift.
- Experts like Juergen Guldner and Jason Munster advocate for a combination of BEV and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, emphasizing cost-effectiveness and sustainability, though challenges like infrastructure costs and renewable energy sourcing exist.
- BMW is actively working on building an ecosystem for hydrogen vehicles, testing pilot fleets globally and exploring potential partnerships with commercial fleet customers to drive demand.
- However, the hydrogen industry faces uncertainties due to the lack of clarity in guidance around tax credits, hindering the potential boom experienced by the battery industry and raising concerns about the VC model's suitability for hydrogen projects.
Despite a recent dip in funding for green hydrogen startups and the shutdown of hydrogen plants and fueling stations across the U.S., BMW has recently announced plans to collaborate with Toyota to develop a hydrogen fuel-cell consumer car for series production by 2028. BMW believes that a mix of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hydrogen vehicles is essential for achieving a shift to zero-emissions transportation. Industry experts like Juergen Guldner and Jason Munster support this view, highlighting the benefits of offering customers a choice between BEVs and hydrogen vehicles.
Guldner and Munster argue that a combination of BEV and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is not only cost-effective but also more sustainable. However, challenges such as the high cost of building hydrogen infrastructure and the need to use renewables for hydrogen production remain significant hurdles. Both experts stress the importance of considering the entire ecosystem, including production, distribution, and end-use, to ensure the success of hydrogen vehicles.
BMW is actively working on creating an ecosystem for hydrogen vehicles, including testing pilot fleets globally and seeking partnerships with commercial fleet customers to boost demand. However, uncertainties in the hydrogen industry persist due to a lack of clarity in guidance concerning tax credits. Munster points out that the VC model may not be well-suited for hydrogen projects, given the long-term payback and substantial capital requirements involved.
The Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes tax credits for clean hydrogen production, but the lack of clear guidance on these credits is hindering the industry's growth. Munster suggests more relaxed rules for subsidies to allow companies to qualify more easily. The subsidy amount is also uncertain, ranging from $30 billion to $300 billion, causing companies to pause expansion plans until further clarity is provided.