Hydrogen Horizon 2025: Key Trends and Investments Reshaping the Industry
Key Ideas
- Blue hydrogen investments in the US are set to surge, propelled by the 45Q tax credit and industry support, positioning the country as a key global producer.
- Expectations for at least one giga-scale green hydrogen project to reach FID, despite challenges, highlighting the sector's growth potential.
- Chinese electrolyser manufacturers are projected to increase their market share significantly by 2025, driven by competitive pricing and global expansion strategies.
- The industry faces a potential risk due to a gap between project FIDs and offtake contracts, emphasizing the importance of securing agreements to avoid cancellations.
Wood Mackenzie's report on the hydrogen sector for 2025 highlights several key trends reshaping the industry. The rise of blue hydrogen in the United States is a prominent feature, with investments expected to surge, supported by the 45Q tax credit and the influence of the oil and gas lobby. This surge in investment is anticipated to solidify the US as a leading producer of blue hydrogen globally, potentially overshadowing green hydrogen initiatives. Additionally, a major green hydrogen project exceeding 1GWe is forecasted to reach Final Investment Decision despite challenges in securing offtakers and regulatory support.
Chinese electrolyser manufacturers are poised to expand their market share significantly by the end of 2025, capturing over one-third of markets outside North America and Europe. Competitive pricing and manufacturing capacity are driving this growth, signaling a shift in the industry's dynamics. However, there is a concern regarding the mismatch between project FIDs and offtake contracts, particularly in the US, which could lead to project cancellations. To mitigate this risk, agreements need to be accelerated in key markets like Japan, South Korea, and Europe.
Moreover, the report forecasts a doubling of investments in low-carbon ammonia by 2025, totaling $8 billion. This includes significant allocations for hydrogen applications in maritime and aviation sectors, as well as investments in ammonia storage terminals and carriers. Japanese firms are expected to lead this surge, indicating a shift towards low-carbon alternatives in the global market.
Overall, the industry is poised for transformation in 2025, with a focus on investment patterns, technological advancements, and global market expansion in the low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia sectors.
Topics
Projects
Energy Transition
Green Technology
Market Expansion
Policy Impact
Investment Trends
Sustainability Initiatives
Industry Projections
Global Market Dynamics
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