A Three-Year Simulation of Australia's Renewable Electricity Grid
Key Ideas
  • The simulation achieved an average of 98.4% renewable electricity over 3 years, with 'Other' sources meeting just 1.6% of demand.
  • Challenges were faced in winter months, with 'Other' supplementing supply during this period, reaching a peak of 18.6% in the most challenging week.
  • Wind and solar directly supplied 82% of demand without storage or curtailment, showcasing the potential of these renewable sources.
  • The simulation's results align with Australia's energy transition goals and show promising outcomes for a highly renewable grid with effective storage and generation mix.
Over the course of three years, a weekly simulation was conducted to test the feasibility of achieving close to 100% renewable electricity in Australia's National Electricity Market. The simulation utilized actual demand data and rescaled wind and solar generation data to represent over 60% and 45% of annual demand, respectively. Results showed an average of 98.4% renewable electricity, with occasional supplementation from 'Other' sources, likely gas or diesel peakers. Despite challenges during winter months, the simulation demonstrated high renewable penetration from wind and solar, with minimal storage usage. The model's reliance on wind and solar, backed by storage and hydro, proved effective in balancing supply and demand. The simulation, though optimistic in some aspects, aligns closely with official forecasts such as the Integrated System Plan, highlighting the potential for a highly renewable grid with strategic energy mix and storage solutions.
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