Hydrogen Supply Forecast 2030: Overcoming Challenges for Clean Energy Transition
Key Ideas
  • BNEF predicts a 30-fold increase in clean hydrogen supply to 16.4 million metric tons per year by 2030, driven by supportive policies and mature project pipelines.
  • Despite growth projections, less than one-third of announced projects are expected to materialize by 2030, leading to potential shortfalls in meeting government targets.
  • The US is poised to lead in clean hydrogen production by 2030, with significant contributions from blue hydrogen projects, while China, Europe, and the US together could account for over 80% of global supply.
  • Challenges ahead include uncertainties in project completion timelines, policy support, and market adoption, especially in regions like Latin America and Australia with less policy backing.
BloombergNEF (BNEF) projects a significant surge in clean hydrogen supply to 16.4 million metric tons per year by 2030, reflecting a 30-fold increase from current levels. This growth trajectory is underpinned by favorable policies and a maturing project pipeline, particularly in the US, Europe, and China. While the forecast is optimistic, BNEF highlights challenges in project realization, with only around 30% of announced projects expected to be operational by the end of the decade, potentially leading to a shortfall in meeting government targets. The dominance of electrolysis and blue hydrogen in the supply mix, especially driven by the US market, presents a promising outlook for clean hydrogen production. However, uncertainties loom, including the timing of project completions, policy stability, and market adoption rates. The report underscores the pivotal role of supportive policies in driving clean hydrogen adoption, with regions like Latin America and Australia likely to play a minor role in global supply due to policy gaps. Export-oriented capacity is a key focus, with over 31% of the forecasted capacity earmarked for exports, highlighting potential opportunities in North America. However, challenges persist in determining the exact export volumes, with policies in Europe, Japan, and Korea poised to drive clean hydrogen imports. The narrative also delves into the electrolyzer market, with significant planned capacity expansions but lingering uncertainties in policy implementation and project maturity. China's market dynamics present a notable uncertainty, with deployment heavily reliant on policy targets that are still evolving. The overall outlook remains positive but subject to various uncertainties, including policy changes and market dynamics that could reshape the clean hydrogen landscape.
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