Accelerating the Transition to Zero-Emission Trucks: Policy and Technology Insights
Key Ideas
  • Rapidly falling costs of batteries and fuel cells will facilitate the market diffusion of zero-emission trucks, especially battery-electric trucks.
  • Policy focus should include establishing large-scale production facilities, creating adequate charging infrastructure, expanding electricity grids, and implementing supportive regulations.
  • Battery-electric trucks are projected to achieve cost parity soon, requiring short-term policy incentives with lower public spending compared to fuel cell trucks.
  • Prioritizing support for battery-electric trucks is recommended as a no-regret policy to guide the market, reduce uncertainties, and accelerate the transition to zero-emission trucks.
The article discusses the transition to zero-emission trucks, highlighting the significant role of rapidly falling costs of batteries and fuel cells in enabling the market diffusion of such vehicles. Policy and industry must prepare for the rise of battery-electric trucks by focusing on various aspects such as manufacturing, supply chain, charging infrastructure, and electricity grid expansions. The study projects substantial cost declines in zero-emission truck components, particularly in battery costs, which are expected to reach €100 kWh–1 by 2050. This cost reduction trend is crucial for achieving cost parity between battery-electric trucks and diesel trucks, making battery-electric trucks a more cost-effective and profitable choice. The article emphasizes the importance of promptly preparing electricity grids and charging infrastructure to avoid delays in the deployment of zero-emission trucks. Additionally, it suggests that battery-electric trucks are the primary technology to support, as they require fewer financial incentives compared to fuel cell trucks, which might face challenges due to hydrogen scarcity. The study meta-forecasted future cost developments for batteries and fuel cells by analyzing over 200 sources and comparing the cost projections with market evolution. The findings stress the need for policymakers to prioritize financial support for battery-electric trucks to accelerate the transition while containing public spending. Overall, the article conveys a positive sentiment towards the potential of battery-electric trucks in driving the shift towards zero-emission trucks.
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