Global Outlook for Electrolysers: The Future of e-Sustainable Aviation Fuels
Key Ideas
- IEA predicts that by 2050, 40% of electrolyser capacity globally could be dedicated to producing green hydrogen-based sustainable aviation fuels (e-SAF).
- Europe's REFuelEU Aviation policy is a significant driver for this demand, aiming for a minimum share of 2% SAF at EU airports by 2025, increasing to 70% by 2050.
- Regions with low-cost hydrogen production are expected to attract the majority of investment, with China, the US, and the Middle East leading in installed electrolysers by 2050.
- IEA's Announced Pledges Scenario anticipates that electrolysis could contribute to 80% of low-emissions hydrogen production by 2050, with transport being the primary consumer, especially maritime fuels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a significant role for electrolysis in the production of green hydrogen-based sustainable aviation fuels (e-SAF) in the future. The IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 report suggests that by 2050, almost 40% of the global electrolyser capacity could be dedicated to e-SAF production, with over 320GW of electrolyser capacity expected worldwide. This move is further propelled by the EU's REFuelEU Aviation policy, mandating a progressive increase in the share of sustainable aviation fuels at EU airports.
While Europe is a significant market, the IEA expects regions with more cost-effective hydrogen production to attract the bulk of investments. China, the US, and the Middle East are projected to lead in installed electrolysers by 2050, while the APS scenario envisions electrolysis contributing to 80% of low-emissions hydrogen production. Transport, particularly maritime fuels, is forecasted to drive demand, necessitating over 500GW of electrolysis globally.
This shift towards green fuels aligns with industry sentiments, with experts like Liz Rowsell, Chief Technology Officer at Johnson Matthey, advocating for regulated and price-guaranteed sustainable aviation fuels as a means to promote renewable hydrogen technology. The report also highlights the crucial role of government support and SAF mandates in advancing the hydrogen sector's development phases. Overall, the outlook is positive, emphasizing the potential for electrolysis to revolutionize sustainable aviation and drive the transition towards a greener energy future.