Sustainable Aviation Fuels Expected to Soar by 2050
Key Ideas
  • According to DNV's Energy Transition Outlook, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are projected to account for up to 12% of world aviation energy demand by 2050.
  • Bio-based SAF is expected to reach a 22% share by mid-century due to its more widespread availability and fewer regulatory barriers compared to hydrogen-based fuels.
  • The aviation industry is exploring hydrogen as an alternative, but challenges such as low energy density and infrastructure requirements are expected to limit its adoption to 4% of the energy mix by 2050.
  • Efforts by businesses and individuals willing to pay for SAF, combined with region-specific initiatives, will drive the gradual uptake of SAF and e-fuels in the aviation sector.
The 2024 Energy Transition Outlook by DNV predicts a significant increase in the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) starting from the 2030s. By 2050, SAF is projected to account for up to 12% of the world's aviation energy demand. This growth is attributed to decarbonization policies and consumer-driven demand that has pushed airlines to set ambitious targets for transitioning to SAF. The report highlights the rapid rise in SAF production, which doubled between 2022 and 2023 and is expected to double once more between 2023 and 2024. Despite this progress, the aviation sector still faces challenges in fully decarbonizing, although initiatives like the European Commission's RefuelEU Aviation Initiative aim to boost SAF uptake as part of the broader EU Green Deal. While the industry is also considering hydrogen as an alternative fuel, DNV's report notes that the low energy density of hydrogen poses challenges, limiting its projected share in the energy mix to 4% by 2050. In contrast, bio-based SAF is expected to reach a 22% share by mid-century due to its greater availability and fewer regulatory barriers. Additionally, e-fuels based on hydrogen are anticipated to gain traction in the 2040s, surpassing pure hydrogen in the aviation sector and reaching a 12% share by 2050. The report emphasizes the role of regional initiatives and the willingness of businesses and individuals to pay for SAF in driving the adoption of these sustainable fuels. While efforts to invest in SAF to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are still relatively new, they are seen as crucial in advancing the industry's transition towards greener aviation.
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