Global Electrolyser Capacity Growth and the Future of Green Hydrogen Production
Key Ideas
  • IEA projects significant growth in global electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen production from 1.4 GW in 2023 to potentially 520 GW by 2030.
  • China plays a crucial role in the expansion, with 60% of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity and key FIDs, driving down costs and leading in operational capacity.
  • Europe and the United States are also expected to increase their shares of global installed capacity, with a focus on meeting interim targets for hydrogen production.
  • Despite the current high costs, projections indicate a significant reduction in the cost of low-emissions hydrogen production by 2030, making it more competitive against fossil-based production.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a substantial increase in global electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen production, with the capacity expected to grow from 1.4 GW in 2023 to a potential range of 230-520 GW by 2030. This growth signifies a significant shift towards green hydrogen as a clean energy source. China, home to a majority (60%) of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity, leads the way in both manufacturing and operational capacity. The country has played a key role in driving down costs and has accounted for a significant portion of global Final Investment Decisions (FIDs). Europe and the United States are also expected to increase their shares of global installed capacity, aligning with their efforts to meet interim hydrogen production targets. Despite the current high costs of low-emissions hydrogen production, projections suggest a substantial cost reduction by 2030. The cost of producing low-emissions hydrogen from renewable electricity is expected to decrease to $2-9/kg H2 by 2030, potentially halving the current costs. This reduction in costs will make green hydrogen more competitive compared to unabated fossil-based production. The IEA report also highlights the dominance of alkaline technology in the electrolyser market, accounting for over 60% of installed capacity in 2023, followed by proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for water electrolyser installation has been around 60% between 2020 and 2023, indicating the rapid advancement of hydrogen technology.
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