India's Growing Oil Demand and Transition to Clean Energy
Key Ideas
- India projected to be the largest contributor to global oil demand growth in the second half of the decade, defying the global trend towards clean energy technologies.
- The country's robust oil demand is driven by the transportation sector's reliance on gasoline and diesel, buoyed by vehicle growth on Indian roads.
- Government initiatives include promoting battery and hydrogen-powered vehicles, mandatory blending of ethanol and biogas to reduce crude oil import dependence.
- Electric vehicle adoption is growing, especially in the two and three-wheeler segments, with around 1.6 million electric vehicles sold in India during 2023-24.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that India will be the largest contributor to global oil demand growth in the second half of the decade, in stark contrast to the decline in demand seen in advanced economies. The country's oil demand is fueled by its fast-growing economy, expanding middle class, and increasing urbanization and industrialization.
India's reliance on gasoline and diesel in the transportation sector remains strong, with the country being the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil. The government is taking steps to reduce oil import bills by incentivizing alternative technologies such as batteries, flex fuels, and hydrogen, along with promoting the blending of ethanol and biogas in fuel.
The increase in vehicle ownership in India has been substantial, with the country now the third-largest passenger vehicle market globally. This growth in the number of cars on Indian roads has led to a significant rise in demand for road diesel and gasoline.
Moreover, the government's focus on clean energy is evident through the promotion of electric vehicles. While electric vehicle penetration is still low, there has been significant growth in sales, especially in the two and three-wheeler segments. The country's transition to cleaner energy sources is expected to continue, with a projected 40 percent growth in the size of the car fleet by 2030.