India's Power Sector Surge: Driving Forces, Growth Projections, and Transformational Trends
Key Ideas
- Nomura projects robust growth for India's power sector with a 7% CAGR in electricity demand from FY24 to FY27, driven by economic activity and electrification.
- Renewables are forecasted to supply 35% of India's electricity in FY25, with solar and wind energy expected to account for 75% of incremental power demand by then.
- India's power transmission infrastructure is set to receive a substantial boost with USD 110 billion investments from FY22 to FY32 to meet escalating power demand and support renewables.
- By FY30, renewables are expected to constitute 55% of India's total installed capacity, aligning with the nation's goal of achieving 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Nomura has projected robust growth for India's power sector, anticipating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7 per cent in electricity demand from FY24 to FY27. The surge is attributed to accelerating economic activity, greater electrification, and emerging demand from sectors like data centres, electric vehicle (EV) charging, and green hydrogen production. The changing weather patterns and supply deficits could further add to the growing power demand. By FY25, electricity consumption is expected to increase by 7.2 per cent year-on-year. India has made significant progress in renewable energy adoption, with renewables estimated to supply 35 per cent of the country's electricity in FY25, up from 33.5 per cent in FY24. Solar and wind energy are projected to account for roughly 75 per cent of the incremental power demand by FY25, with solar power alone forecasted to grow by 23 per cent year-on-year. India aims to achieve 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, supporting its net-zero emissions goal for 2070. The growth in renewables is expected to continue, with renewables projected to generate 49 per cent of the nation's electricity by 2040. To support this transformation, India's power transmission infrastructure will receive substantial investments of USD 110 billion from FY22 to FY32, aiming to meet the escalating power demand. The National Electricity Plan (2023-32) outlines major investments and expansion targets, including the addition of 162,646 circuit kilometres of transmission lines and 1,094 GVA of transformation capacity. The plan also targets enhancing inter-regional transfer capacity and implementing new high-voltage direct current lines for efficient power transmission. The shift towards renewable energy will be facilitated by technological advancements in battery storage and decreasing costs of solar installations, with renewables expected to be the backbone of India's power landscape by FY30.
Topics
India
Renewable Energy
Electric Vehicles
Green Energy
Electricity Demand
Economic Growth
Infrastructure Investment
Data Centers
Power Transmission
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