IEA Boosts Low-Emission Hydrogen Forecast, Urges Stronger Stimulus Policies for Demand Acceleration
Key Ideas
  • IEA raises low-emission hydrogen production forecast to 49 million tonnes by 2030, up 25% from previous estimates.
  • Only 7% of the projected projects have reached final investment decision stage, indicating a need for stronger stimulus policies.
  • Global electrolyser capacity expected to reach 5 gigawatts by end of 2023 and potentially 520 gigawatts by 2030, with China leading the market.
  • Producing green hydrogen is currently more expensive but costs are projected to decrease, impacting final consumer prices minimally.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly increased its projection for low-emission hydrogen production by 2030, citing a potential output of 49 million tonnes if all planned projects materialize. However, only a small percentage of these projects have advanced to the final investment decision stage, emphasizing the necessity for governments and businesses to implement stronger stimulus policies. The report highlights the dominance of fossil fuel-derived hydrogen production, underscoring the need for a shift towards low-emission sources. Despite the high cost of green hydrogen production compared to its fossil fuel counterpart, the IEA anticipates a reduction in costs, with a minimal impact on consumer prices. The agency stresses the importance of creating demand for low-emission hydrogen to drive the success of new projects, particularly in sectors like steel, refining, and chemicals. While some progress has been made, the IEA warns that current efforts may fall short of achieving climate goals, calling for more decisive action and regulatory support to accelerate the transition to low-emission hydrogen.
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