Renewable Energy Growth in South Africa: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead
Key Ideas
  • Renewable energy in South Africa is projected to reach 50% of total generation by 2040, with solar and wind capacity expected to increase significantly by then.
  • Despite the growth in renewable energy, coal-fired power stations will still account for 27% of the energy mix in 2040, highlighting the challenge of transitioning to cleaner energy sources.
  • The adoption of green hydrogen, aimed at diversifying energy sources, is anticipated to play a significant role in the energy mix post-2030.
  • Standard Bank and Cresco Group are actively involved in discussing and analyzing South Africa's energy market modernization, addressing the need for increased renewable energy implementation at a rapid pace.
A report from Standard Bank and Cresco Group forecasts significant growth in renewable energy in South Africa by 2040, with projections showing that renewable sources will account for 50% of total generation by then. The solar photovoltaic and wind-installed capacity is expected to increase from 10GW in 2024 to 77GW by 2040, while power decarbonisation is set to rise from 15% to 60% during the same period. However, the presence of coal-fired power stations in the energy mix will still be significant at 27% in 2040. The report also highlights the expected introduction of large-scale green hydrogen generation post-2030 to enhance energy diversity. Despite the positive outlook on renewable energy growth, the challenge of meeting carbon-neutrality goals by 2050 is acknowledged, with the need for accelerated implementation of renewable energy to meet national demand. Standard Bank and Cresco Group are actively engaged in discussions regarding South Africa's energy market modernization, emphasizing the importance of transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The joint report titled 'Energy Market Projections' provides insights into the risks and opportunities in South Africa's energy market and highlights the need for market forecast and analysis to support the development of decentralized power markets in the country.
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