Iberia Poised to Lead the Way in Green Hydrogen Production Cost Reduction
Key Ideas
- Cost of producing green hydrogen in Iberia expected to halve to around EUR 5/kg by 2035-40, making it cheaper than in Germany, France, and the Netherlands.
- Higher load factors for renewables generation in Iberia, with green power forecasted to make up 90% of output by 2040, enabling direct connection of electrolysers to the grid and benefit from low wholesale prices.
- There is a current 'price mismatch' between the cost of producing hydrogen and buyer willingness to pay, but this could change by 2040 with higher prices for competing energy sources.
- Cancellation of European hydrogen projects due to high production costs and low off-taker interest is seen as a natural process for the sector, favoring the development of the Iberian hydrogen market and the proposed H2Med pipeline construction.
During a conference in Lisbon organized by Portuguese green lobby Apren, Anise Ganbold, head of global commodities at Aurora Energy Research, highlighted the potential for a significant reduction in the cost of producing green hydrogen in Iberia. The cost is projected to decrease to around EUR 5/kg by 2035-40 compared to the current EUR 10-11/kg, positioning Iberia as a more cost-effective location for green hydrogen production than other European countries. This cost reduction is attributed to the increasing green capacity in Spain and Portugal, where renewables are expected to contribute up to 90% of the power output by 2040. This shift allows electrolysers to be directly connected to the grid, benefiting from low wholesale prices without the need for intermediaries or power purchase agreements. Despite the current 'price mismatch' between production costs and buyer preferences for lower prices, Ganbold suggests that market dynamics could change by 2040, potentially influencing increased acceptance of higher green hydrogen prices. The recent cancellations of European hydrogen projects due to cost challenges and lack of demand are viewed as a natural progression in the sector's evolution. The situation in northern Europe, with higher production costs, is seen as an opportunity for the growth of the Iberian hydrogen market. Additionally, the development of the H2Med pipeline, in collaboration with France and Spanish TSO Enagas, further enhances the prospects for the Iberian green hydrogen industry.