India's Green Hydrogen Ambitions for Export Growth and Cost Competitiveness
Key Ideas
- India's renewable hydrogen developers are optimistic about export opportunities for green ammonia in 2027, driven by cost advantages and offtake interest.
- The country aims to export over half of its targeted 5 million mt of renewable hydrogen by 2030, focusing on emerging hubs in coastal states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and Gujarat.
- While India is capable of producing competitive green hydrogen, challenges exist with the gap between production costs and buyer willingness to pay, hindering deals with refineries and fertilizer manufacturers.
- Despite uncertainties, India's National Green Hydrogen Mission and numerous renewable hydrogen projects signal a promising future for the sector, with potential for growth in export markets like Europe and the Far East.
India's renewable hydrogen sector is positioning itself for growth and export opportunities, particularly in green ammonia, by leveraging cost advantages and increasing offtake interest. The country plans to export a significant portion of its targeted 5 million metric tons of renewable hydrogen production by 2030 from key coastal states where major developers are advancing in project preparations. S&P Global Commodity Insights recognizes India's competitive edge in green hydrogen, emphasizing its importance for regions like Europe with specific green hydrogen consumption mandates. However, challenges persist, as highlighted by the discrepancy between the cost of production and buyer willingness to pay, impeding potential deals with refineries and fertilizer manufacturers. Despite these hurdles, India's commitment to green hydrogen is evident through initiatives like the Rupees 197.44 billion National Green Hydrogen Mission, driving the development of renewable hydrogen projects, electrolyzers, and hubs. With 143 renewable or low-carbon hydrogen projects in the country, totaling 10.55 million metric tons, India is poised for significant growth in the sector. Market dynamics indicate a gap between production costs and buyer prices, with renewable hydrogen costs exceeding buyer expectations. Comparatively, Platts assessed hydrogen prices in Queensland and Japan, showcasing a decline in costs, which could influence India's pricing competitiveness. The potential export growth opportunities align with India's ambitions for green hydrogen, despite challenges, indicating a positive sentiment towards the sector's future prospects.