Green Hydrogen Set to Revolutionize Hard-to-Abate Industries by 2040
Key Ideas
  • ABI Research predicts that global LCOHs will become cost-competitive by 2030 and undercut polluting alternatives by 2040, driving industrial adoption.
  • By 2030, green hydrogen production costs are forecast to drop from US$6-7/kg to around US$2.5/kg due to increased electrolyzer efficiencies and economies of scale.
  • Producers like ITM Power, Plug Power, and Linde, along with technology vendors like Danfoss and Schneider Electric, are crucial in reducing costs and driving adoption.
  • Successful adoption of green hydrogen in heavy industries like aviation, steel, and shipping will be key to meeting sustainability commitments and net zero targets.
Green hydrogen is becoming increasingly crucial for decarbonizing hard-to-abate industries. Despite its sustainability benefits, the high production cost, known as the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH), has been a limiting factor. ABI Research predicts that by 2030, global LCOHs will become cost-competitive and by 2040, they will undercut polluting alternatives, driving industrial adoption. The forecast indicates a significant drop in production costs by 2030, with prices plummeting from an average of US$6-7/kg to approximately US$2.5/kg. By 2040, it is expected to further decrease to US$1.80/kg, primarily due to falling prices for renewable energy, and by 2050, green LCOHs are anticipated to reach around US$1/kg as the market matures. Producers like ITM Power, Plug Power, and Linde, together with technology vendors such as Danfoss and Schneider Electric, are playing a pivotal role in reducing costs and driving adoption. Companies like Shell, Adani Energy, and Sinopec are highlighted as key players in this transition, with heavy industries' adoption of green hydrogen being fundamental for achieving sustainability commitments and net zero targets. Industries like aviation, steel, and shipping, under pressure to decarbonize, will be crucial in shaping the demand for hydrogen. The success of projects in this transition largely depends on accurately predicting costs, hence heavy industry vendors must closely monitor cost developments and demand trends in specific markets.
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