Hydrogen Sector: Investing in the Future or Facing Setbacks?
Key Ideas
  • The hydrogen sector saw a positive turnaround in 2024, with the Morningstar Global Hydrogen Index gaining around 4.86% in US dollars, although still underperforming the broader market.
  • Industrial gas companies are expected to benefit significantly from the hydrogen boom, with opportunities in gray, blue, and green hydrogen production and distribution.
  • Despite slow hydrogen demand growth in key sectors, the International Energy Agency projects a substantial increase in global demand by 2050, especially for clean hydrogen.
  • Investment opportunities in hydrogen stocks are emerging, particularly for long-term investors looking at industrial gas companies like Air Liquide, Air Products & Chemicals, and Linde which have strong moats but are currently trading in overvalued territory.
Hydrogen is poised to play a crucial role in the energy transition, offering a clean energy source to help industries decarbonize. Despite past setbacks for hydrogen investors and lagging market performance, the sector showed signs of improvement in 2024. The Morningstar Global Hydrogen Index saw a modest gain but still trailed behind the overall market. The US utility Entergy ETR contributed positively to the index's performance, benefiting from increased electricity demand and investments in clean energy projects like Monarch Energy's green hydrogen initiative. On the flip side, companies like Plug Power PLUG faced challenges, with negative stock performance due to cash burn. The uncertainty surrounding how the new US administration would handle incentives for clean hydrogen under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 remains. However, analysts anticipate industrial gas companies to be key beneficiaries of the growing hydrogen trend. Different forms of hydrogen production (gray, blue, and green) and distribution are expected to evolve gradually, with green hydrogen playing a pivotal role in the carbon transition. Despite slow growth in hydrogen demand, the International Energy Agency projects a significant surge in global demand by 2050, particularly for cleaner hydrogen variants. In the European Union, hydrogen is set to be a cornerstone of the energy transition, with ambitious targets to produce and import hydrogen by 2030. Investment opportunities in hydrogen stocks, particularly in industrial gas companies like Air Liquide, Air Products & Chemicals, and Linde, are emerging. While prospects for blue hydrogen look promising, challenges like high capital costs and regulatory uncertainties have slowed down green hydrogen projects. However, with a selective approach, industrial gas firms are expected to capitalize on green hydrogen opportunities in the long run, despite current overvaluation in the market.
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