Hydrogen Horizons: Key Insights for 2025
Key Ideas
- WoodMac predicts a rise in blue hydrogen in the U.S. and a surge in low-carbon ammonia investments for 2025.
- Challenges persist for green hydrogen projects with only a few large-scale FIDs expected, while Chinese electrolyzer manufacturers are set to expand globally.
- Mismatch between project FIDs and offtake contracts remains a concern; acceleration of offtake agreements in key regions could help bridge the gap.
- Anticipated surge in low-carbon ammonia investments, with Japanese firms leading the way and significant investments expected in ammonia storage terminals and carriers.
Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) has identified key trends to watch in the hydrogen sector for 2025. The report highlights the expected acceleration of the low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia sectors, with notable developments such as the rise of blue hydrogen in the U.S. and a giga-scale green project reaching final investment decision (FID). The U.S. is forecasted to become a leading blue hydrogen producer, driven by policy support, while green hydrogen faces challenges.
WoodMac emphasizes the importance of factors like securing offtakers, regulatory environments, and subsidies for large-scale FIDs. The report anticipates the emergence of more giga-scale green hydrogen projects and the increasing competition from Chinese electrolyzer manufacturers globally.
One area of concern highlighted is the persistent mismatch between project FIDs and offtake contracts, with risks of cancellations. WoodMac suggests that acceleration of offtake agreements in key regions could help alleviate this issue. Additionally, there is a prediction of a surge in low-carbon ammonia investments, with Japanese firms leading the way and significant investments expected in ammonia storage terminals and carriers to meet rising export market demands.
WoodMac also discusses the role of e-fuels in powering critical transportation segments and the impact of carbon intensity regulations on the global hydrogen market. Overall, the report provides insights into the industry trends, investments, and challenges expected in the hydrogen sector for 2025.