Renewable Growth Forecasts and Challenges Leading to 2030
Key Ideas
- IEA projects renewable additions to grow significantly by 2030, surpassing most country targets but falling short of the target set at Cop 28.
- Solar photovoltaic additions are expected to drive this growth, with China leading with 60% of the forecasted growth.
- Renewables are expected to account for half of global energy generation by 2030, with the EU aiming to double renewable capacity growth.
- Challenges like slow grid connection, limited expansion investment, and lack of policy support for certain renewable fuels pose hurdles to meeting renewable energy targets.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a report projecting a significant increase in renewable energy additions by 2030, with a growth forecast of 2.7 times compared to current levels. While this surpasses many countries' targets, it falls short of the ambitious goal set at Cop 28. Solar photovoltaic additions are expected to be the main driver of this growth, comprising 80% of new power plants by 2030, with China anticipated to contribute 60% of this expansion. The IEA predicts that renewable energy sources will contribute 50% of global energy generation by 2030, with the European Union aiming to accelerate its renewable capacity growth. However, challenges such as slow grid connection pose significant obstacles to expansion. The report also highlights concerns about limited investment in expansion due to a supply glut, particularly in PV manufacturing. As a result, the forecast for manufacturing capacity by 2030 has been revised down. Despite the increase in electricity generated from renewables, the IEA projects a modest 28% expansion of renewable fuels like bioenergy, biogas, hydrogen, and e-fuels, which are expected to constitute less than 6% of the energy mix. The report notes a growth decline in geothermal, tidal, and concentrated solar power due to insufficient policy support, while hydropower is expected to have minimal global additions by 2030.
Topics
Utilities
Renewable Energy
Market Trends
Geothermal
Electricity Generation
Hydropower
Energy Mix
Policy Impact
Manufacturing Investment
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