Shell Forecasts 60% Rise in Global LNG Demand by 2040 Driven by Asian Economic Growth
Key Ideas
  • Shell predicts a significant increase in global LNG demand by 2040, with a 60% rise, mainly fueled by economic growth in Asia.
  • The growth in LNG demand is attributed to the need for decarbonization in heavy industry and transport, as well as the impact of energy-intensive artificial intelligence.
  • China and India are actively expanding their LNG import capacity and natural gas infrastructure to meet rising demands.
  • The USA and Qatar are expected to be major players in global LNG supply, with the USA potentially becoming the largest LNG exporter by 2030.
According to Shell's LNG Outlook 2025, global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to increase by approximately 60% by 2040. This growth is primarily being driven by the economic expansion in Asia, alongside the imperative to decarbonize heavy industry and transport sectors, as well as the influence of energy-intensive artificial intelligence. While global LNG trade experienced a modest annual increase in 2024, constrained new supply development has been a limiting factor. However, over 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply are anticipated to be accessible by 2030, particularly catering to the increasing gas demand in Asia. Challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain issues are being encountered by new LNG projects. China is significantly bolstering its LNG import capacity, while India is progressing with building natural gas infrastructure. In the maritime sector, the demand for LNG-powered vessels is expected to rise, with a significant portion of new vessels being LNG-fueled. LNG is increasingly being adopted as a cost-effective fuel for shipping and road transport, aiding in emission reductions and paving the way for lower-carbon alternatives like bio-LNG or synthetic LNG. Europe is projected to require LNG well into the 2030s to balance renewable energy sources and ensure energy security. Qatar and the USA are set to become prominent LNG suppliers, with the USA potentially leading as the largest exporter by 2030. Shell is intensifying its liquefaction capacity growth, aiming to expand by 20-30% between now and 2030, with plans for projects in Canada, Nigeria, Qatar, and the UAE. The company is also emphasizing the importance of LNG as a transition fuel, with significant developments expected between 2026 and 2028, marking a shift towards a buyers' market.
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